Der Preppers Thread
04.10.2021 um 14:47Hier noch ein paar unsortierte Quellen dafür, was sich da so zusammenbraut:
Act accordingly.
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The Big PictureQuelle: https://www.forbes.com/sites/edwardsegal/2021/09/30/supply-chain-crises-in-us-and-uk-are-latest-reminders-of-challenges-facing-business-leaders/
John Boyd is the principal of the Boyd Company, an authority on global supply chain trends. He observed that, “As for overall supply chain challenges, the chip shortage (impacting virtually all consumer appliances) along with the pandemic have been the chief villains here but not the only ones. For example, we have seen freak storms in the U.S. Gulf Coast, Japan and China become serious roadblocks to the supply chain. But there are others.”
He said the other “chief villains” include:
Warehouse Shortage
A national shortage of cold storage warehousing space—how pharmaceuticals and vaccines are warehoused and distributed around the country.
Stockpiling
A shift in manufacturing strategy away from “just-in-time” delivery to one of stockpiling.
Labor
Another speed bump in our nation’s supply chain is the current labor shortage. Companies throughout the U.S. are struggling to find workers and no industry is struggling harder than warehousing, especially labor-intensive fulfillment centers.
The supply chain is also being constrained by heavily backlogged West Coast ports and rising over-the-road freight costs, with truckload van rates now averaging $2.73 per mile nationally which is up a huge 25.6% increase year-over-year.
“The supply chain problems are much more persistent than most policymakers expected, although companies are less surprised,” he said. “Governments are having to rethink quickly because the three elements – supply side, transport, labour – are coming together to blow a stagflationary wind through the global economy.”Quelle: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/oct/02/supply-chain-world-economy-energy-labour-transport-covid
Energy shortages are providing the starkest illustration of the problem, with increasing numbers of petrol stations in the UK running out of fuel, and cities in northern China having to ration power and force factories in the world’s number one manufacturing nation to shutter just when pre-Christmas demand is reaching a peak in the west.
Both countries have been caught out by not having enough reserves amid a scramble throughout the world for natural gas and for oil, which has almost doubled in price in 12 months to nearly $80 a barrel.
GermanyQuelle: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/oct/02/how-the-supply-chain-crisis-is-affecting-six-big-economies
A 14.3% surge in energy prices in Germany and the knock-on effect on petrol prices (up 20%) and foodstuffs (4.9%) have all contributed to September’s inflation rate rise to 4.1%, the highest in Germany in almost 30 years.
This is put down to growing demand, a shortage in supply and a lack of alternative energy sources. There are suspicions that Russia is artificially holding back supplies in order to increase pressure for the opening of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, a charge the Kremlin vehemently denies.
The Bundesbank predicts inflation will rise to 5% by the year’s end. Driving prices upwards are a lift in the VAT rate, after it was lowered temporarily last year to help businesses cope with the pandemic, as well a rise in CO2 emission tariffs and scarcity of metals, wood and semiconductors.
Despite full order books, these supply frictions are expected to continue at least until the end of the year and to cost the economy €40bn, the effect of which will mainly be felt in 2022. GDP of 2.5% is predicted this year, accelerating to 5.1% next year.
However, there has been no talk as yet of a “crisis”, “emergency” or “panic” in Germany and while many manufacturers are feeling the pinch from the friction in supply chains, the average consumer, though often facing longer than usual waits for the delivery of luxury goods (furniture, electronic products, cars), is not experiencing empty supermarket shelves.
U.S. natgas futures jump to 7-year high on Europe supply fearsQuelle: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-natgas-futures-rise-near-4-europe-supply-fears-2021-09-30/
France will move to ease the cost of rising prices for consumers by blocking further natural gas price hikes and by preventing a planned increase in electricity tariffs scheduled in February, Prime Minister Jean Castex said on Thursday.Quelle: https://www.france24.com/en/france/20210930-french-pm-castex-says-government-will-block-natural-gas-price-hikes
"For natural gas and electricity, we'll put in place what I would call a tariffs shield. We're going to shield ourselves against those tariff hikes," Castex told TF1 television.
On Monday, France's energy regulator said that Engie's gas prices would increase by 12.6% on Oct. 1.
Castex said that rise would go through but that the prices from then on would remain at the same level until world prices go down, something which should occur in March or April.
Energy prices have been rising sharply around the world over the last few months, adding to inflationary pressures and threatening to dent consumer confidence.
Europe is battling a record-breaking surge in energy prices that threatens to derail the post-pandemic economic recovery, strain household incomes and even tarnish the nascent green transition.Quelle: https://www.euronews.com/2021/09/23/why-europe-s-energy-prices-are-soaring-and-could-get-much-worse
A series of market, geographic and political factors have coalesced into a perfect storm that shows no signs of abetting as the continent enters the autumn season, temperatures gradually decrease and heating becomes indispensable.
Analysts are already warning the crisis, which is exacerbated by a mixture of temporary and structural problems, will be prolonged and the worst may yet to come.
Prices of natural gas are skyrocketing: at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility, Europe's leading benchmark, prices have risen from €16 megawatt per hour in early January to €75 by mid-September, a hike of more than 360% in less than one year.
Act accordingly.
