testar schrieb:Und einer der Gründe warum niemand was gefunden hat: die Westwinde und deren Einfluss (besonders wenn es je weiter nach Süden ging umso stärker) auf MH370 bleiben fast überall ziemlich unberücksichtigt.
Wurde sehr wohl berücksichtigt:
Quelle: Bayesian Methods in the Search for MH370 - November 30, 2015 - ISBN: 978-981-10-0378-3
Fig. 6.3 Wind data for 8 March 2014, 00:00, at 175 hPa (approximately 41;000 ft). Contour lines
are drawn every 5 kn. The zonal component of the wind is the component blowing toward the East,
while the meridional component is the component blowing toward the North.
fluence both the ground speed and the ground track angle. In Constant Magnetic/True
Track and lateral navigation modes, the wind will influence the ground speed. For
this reason, wind must be incorporated into the analysis.
The wind data used in this study was provided by the Australian Bureau of
Meteorology from the ACCESS-G model, outlined in . The model provides
estimates of wind at air pressures from 150 hPa to 300 hPa in 25 hPa steps and
from 300 hPa to 500 hPa in 50 hPa steps. This corresponds to an altitude range from
approximately 18;000 ft to 44;000 ft. The model provides predictions every three
hours at latitudes and longitudes spaced by 0:375 and 0:562;5 respectively. Linear
interpolation is performed in time, altitude, latitude and longitude. An example of
the model output is shown in figure 6.3.
The predictions provided by the climate model are averages over time and space,
so even if they are very accurate they do not exactly provide the wind experienced at
a particular location and time. For this reason, two independent OU processes are
used to model the error in the Eastern and Northern components of the wind data.
Parameters of the model were determined using the process described in section 6.1.1
based on logged aircraft flight data (i.e., using the predicted wind value as the nominal
set point). The OU process (in units of knots) parameter values were found to be
bwind = 0:001087, and qwind = 0:07021kn2 s1. This corresponds to a steady state
error of 5:684 kn.
Sehr wissenschaftliche Abhandlung und deutlich strukturiertere Form als hier im Forum. (;->)