No offense. Geht man der Sache stringent nach landet man immer beim Piloten - 100% bei dir. Ich will lediglich nur neue Denkanstöße geben in dieser monothematischen Diskussion. Bei Reddit hat es jemand auf den Punkt gebracht und klar ist das nicht von der Hand zu weisen:
I don't really understand the hyper-sensitivity around protecting Zaharie's image. It's not like this is a public trial or politically motivated discussion. Nobody here has a dog in this race, we're just amateur investigators trying to apply some critical thinking to the evidence.
Applying Bayes theorem to all of the circumstances around the case will produce a very high probability that Zaharie perpetrated a mass murder-suicide.
Just think about all the probabilities involved. The probability that the flight sim coordinates were a coincidence. The probability that an accident occurs during the exact 5 min handover between ATC. The probability of an accident taking out ACARS and communications simultaneously. The probability that a catastrophic accident would not harm the planes ability to fly for 7 hours. The probability that the flaperon's jagged edge was created without extension.
That's just a fraction of an enourmous list of small % probabilities that must be true if this was an accident. Realistically all of those probabilities are like 10% likely, but even if you generously peg them at 50% each that's .55
= 3% chance of him being innocent just going by the few I listed. It's an uncomfortable idea to think that Z murdered all of these people but it's by FAR the most probable scenario if you objectively look at the evidence.